Conflict Coverage: The Zeroing of Daly din Kolesi

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Liander
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Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:31 pm

In the second zeroing of the ongoing conflict, the vampire Daly has been drained of blood as noted here, and originally posted here, with the childer of Seyda St. John claiming credit for the kill. This development is more interesting than it would initially appear, however. Let us consider a couple of things.
  • Daly was last sighted at 2174 pints prior to his zeroing.
  • The current St. John roster includes eight combatants.
The math is incredibly simple. At his last sighted blood of 2174, eight vials would result in dropping him to just above Garlic Range at 1451. Zeroing him from there would require approximately 500 Scrolls of Turning, at a generous average of one in four successful hits, followed by a Wooden Stake. If we assume St. John reserved a warrior to land the Stake, then that leaves seven hitters for vials, which would have resulted in bringing him to 1532 and only increasing the required Scroll of Turning expenditure to an approximate 533, give or take.

Let us take this a step further. 533 Scrolls of Turning costs 533 AP for each Scroll thrown. But scrolling a target is an energy-heavy tactic - each time the target is 'bounced' by the effects of the Scroll, a hitter may have to move in any given direction to follow them. If we assume the target moved just half of the time for every successful hit (which is being incredibly generous), this means an extra 67 AP expended, resulting in a 600 AP cost total.

For the sake of simplicity, we will assume the average St. John hitter has an 84 AP maximum, which translates to 672 AP total between all eight vampires on their roster. But that is only if all eight of them can contribute - ladypeacek has thus far not involved herself in active conflict efforts and a number of the St. John roster has been falling in and out of Shadows. Even if all eight contributed, that leaves only 72 AP for a margin of error.

In layman's terms: the St. John were seemingly incapable of zeroing Daly without a stroke of luck or a new hitter.

When questioned about his zeroing, Daly had only the following to say:

Daly wrote:By the time St. John showed up I had 500 blood. [...] nitenurse scrolled me, Pulse scrolled me three times, maybe four, and Kiki uv me. Pulse staked.

When asked who dropped him to 500 pints?

Daly wrote:All I can say right now is it wasn't St. John.

As linked to in the first sentence of this article, nitenurse commented the following on Daly's zeroing:

nitenurse wrote:Combined effort by St John brats.

Hardly, it would appear.

So who put in the actual work? The simple truth is there are not that many players on the board in the city. The Agrippa-Lokason roster is certainly not beyond the realm of possibility, given nitenurse's relationship to melanctha, who is among their numbers, but this possibility is unlikely as they have been laying low since their conflict with The Void. The Republic of Ravenblack is another possibility - though I wonder how nitenurse's clan would feel about being dragged into a family conflict after publicly stating it would not involve said clan; again, an unlikely scenario, given that nitenurse has never been known to engage the whole of the Republic in family-orientated skirmishes.

And what of The Void? When questioned on whether the group had attacked Daly, Kains Son would only state:

Kains Son wrote:I can't comment on that.

As has been mentioned in past editions of this publication before, mercenaries have a murky history in our city. To date, there have even been two wars against them - the first in 2006 and again in 2009, each coined ‘Adopt-A-Twig’. There are many who decry their use, especially in times of war. One needs only look at the reaction to the formation of The Void for further evidence of this. Their entrance to the streets was far from what any would call a warm welcome.

Despite this, nobody can deny their effectiveness. When set to task, the hired guns in our city are relentless in their pursuit of a contract - it’s in the job description, after all. The very fact that an accepted method of handling them is to simply take their hits speaks volumes. If The Void were involved here, their engagement would have been an efficient resolution once the above calculations were taken into consideration, or even by a third-party bystander who was irritated by the drama and waste of resources surrounding this conflict.
MY CHURCH OFFERS NO ABSOLUTES
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Michiru
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Lineage: Matriarch din Kolesi

Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:10 pm

Well done following the lead Liander, before anyone else wants to speak on how you are horrible: remember you have done what no one else so far has cared to.

Hats off to you my dear.
~Michiru Mandruleanu din Kolesi~
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~de Bouillon~
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Dea
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Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:21 pm

Well done as usual, Liander.
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Mahorela | Flesh of His Flesh
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Arallara
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Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:23 pm

Again, informative and detailed. Thank you for the work you've put in Liander.
<3 Anthony’s <3
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Gypsy
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Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:19 am

It's nice to details...you're one the few that takes the time to get them. Thank you for that!
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de Draak
Just keep loving me; I'll keep loving you and the rest will fall into place.
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